Daly Capital Management

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Market notes from our desk.

Plain-language commentary on what we're seeing in markets and how it shapes our portfolios.

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Plain-language commentary on what we're seeing in markets and how it shapes our portfolios. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.

Growth Is Back. So Is Inflation. The Trade-Off Is Getting Harder.

Growth Is Back. So Is Inflation. The Trade-Off Is Getting Harder.

The Fed held, Powell walked, and oil surged 11%. Your weekly macro map is inside.

Intel just beat earnings for the 6th time. The CPU is back.

Intel just beat earnings for the 6th time. The CPU is back.

What the semiconductor surge means for the AI stack, and why Thursday could break the market.

The Gap Between Euphoria and Reality Is Widening

The Gap Between Euphoria and Reality Is Widening

The longest government shutdown in history just ended, but October's jobs and inflation data may never be released—leaving the Fed to fly blind into December's rate decision while tech takes a...

Warsh Arrives as AI Spend Splits the Magnificent Seven

January 30, 2026

Warsh Arrives as AI Spend Splits the Magnificent Seven

The longest government shutdown in history just ended, but October's jobs and inflation data may never be released—leaving the Fed to fly blind into December's rate decision while tech takes a...

The Greenland Selloff: When Tariff Theater Trumps Market Logic

January 23, 2026

The Greenland Selloff: When Tariff Theater Trumps Market Logic

The longest government shutdown in history just ended, but October's jobs and inflation data may never be released—leaving the Fed to fly blind into December's rate decision while tech takes a...

When Central Banks Become Political Targets: What Happens to Your Money

January 16, 2026

When Central Banks Become Political Targets: What Happens to Your Money

The longest government shutdown in history just ended, but October's jobs and inflation data may never be released—leaving the Fed to fly blind into December's rate decision while tech takes a...

Venezuela, Defense Budgets, and Market Rotation—The Week Wall Street Wasn't Expecting

January 9, 2026

Venezuela, Defense Budgets, and Market Rotation—The Week Wall Street Wasn't Expecting

The longest government shutdown in history just ended, but October's jobs and inflation data may never be released—leaving the Fed to fly blind into December's rate decision while tech takes a...

The Turning Point: Why 2026 Starts With Conviction, Not Caution

January 2, 2026

The Turning Point: Why 2026 Starts With Conviction, Not Caution

The longest government shutdown in history just ended, but October's jobs and inflation data may never be released—leaving the Fed to fly blind into December's rate decision while tech takes a...

Record Highs Into the Holidays: How the S&P 500's Best Week in a Month Sets Up 2026

December 26, 2025

Record Highs Into the Holidays: How the S&P 500's Best Week in a Month Sets Up 2026

The longest government shutdown in history just ended, but October's jobs and inflation data may never be released—leaving the Fed to fly blind into December's rate decision while tech takes a...

The Great Rotation Accelerates: Small Caps Surge as AI Trade Cracks

December 19, 2025

The Great Rotation Accelerates: Small Caps Surge as AI Trade Cracks

The longest government shutdown in history just ended, but October's jobs and inflation data may never be released—leaving the Fed to fly blind into December's rate decision while tech takes a...

The Fed Blinks, But Rotation Roars

December 12, 2025

The Fed Blinks, But Rotation Roars

The longest government shutdown in history just ended, but October's jobs and inflation data may never be released—leaving the Fed to fly blind into December's rate decision while tech takes a...

Fed's Next Move: Betting on Goldilocks While Tariffs Loom

December 5, 2025

Fed's Next Move: Betting on Goldilocks While Tariffs Loom

The longest government shutdown in history just ended, but October's jobs and inflation data may never be released—leaving the Fed to fly blind into December's rate decision while tech takes a...

The Fed Put Is Back—But Who's Buying?

November 28, 2025

The Fed Put Is Back—But Who's Buying?

The longest government shutdown in history just ended, but October's jobs and inflation data may never be released—leaving the Fed to fly blind into December's rate decision while tech takes a...

The Fed's Whiplash Week: How Williams Saved Markets (For Now)

November 21, 2025

The Fed's Whiplash Week: How Williams Saved Markets (For Now)

The longest government shutdown in history just ended, but October's jobs and inflation data may never be released—leaving the Fed to fly blind into December's rate decision while tech takes a...

When the Data Goes Dark: Markets Trade on Memory, Not Reality

November 14, 2025

When the Data Goes Dark: Markets Trade on Memory, Not Reality

The longest government shutdown in history just ended, but October's jobs and inflation data may never be released—leaving the Fed to fly blind into December's rate decision while tech takes a...

The Longest Shutdown in History: When Gridlock Becomes Growth Risk

November 7, 2025

The Longest Shutdown in History: When Gridlock Becomes Growth Risk

Washington's 38-day impasse isn't just politics—it's a $7B economic drag triggering rotation out of AI darlings and into defensive plays. Here's what broke.

Markets Navigate Volatility Amid AI Spending Concerns and Fed Hawkishness

October 31, 2025

Markets Navigate Volatility Amid AI Spending Concerns and Fed Hawkishness

Tech megacaps stumble on earnings, Fed signals pause, but Amazon's strength revives optimism.

Trading in the Dark: How Markets Found Their Footing Without a Map

October 24, 2025

Trading in the Dark: How Markets Found Their Footing Without a Map

Three weeks into a government shutdown, markets hit all-time highs on nothing but corporate earnings and hope—proving once again that Wall Street doesn't need Washington's permission to make money.

The Earnings Reckoning: When Narratives Meet Balance Sheets

October 17, 2025

The Earnings Reckoning: When Narratives Meet Balance Sheets

The market's seven-month rally faces its first real stress test as Q3 earnings collide with 4% yields, sticky inflation, and the quietest VIX since August.

Markets Are Flying Blind — Time to Lean Into Real Signals

October 10, 2025

Markets Are Flying Blind — Time to Lean Into Real Signals

The U.S. is stumbling into a data blackout — we’re watching the shadows, not the headlines.

Markets on the Edge — Data, Shutdowns & Fraying Conviction

October 3, 2025

Markets on the Edge — Data, Shutdowns & Fraying Conviction

Preview: The market is begging for a distraction — and this week we may give it exactly that.

Rate Cuts + AI Mania = Uncomfortable Mix for the Bulls

September 26, 2025

Rate Cuts + AI Mania = Uncomfortable Mix for the Bulls

The Fed’s first cut is powering AI leverage and valuation stretch — but under the surface, growth is slipping and risk is rising.

Energy Math Doesn’t Lie: ESG Backlash, Oil Reality, and the New Winners

September 19, 2025

Energy Math Doesn’t Lie: ESG Backlash, Oil Reality, and the New Winners

Forget rate cuts — the real constraint on global markets is energy math.

Jobs Got Whacked, Yields Rolled—and the Fed Is Cornered

September 12, 2025

Jobs Got Whacked, Yields Rolled—and the Fed Is Cornered

Weak jobs data and mass downgrades paint the Fed into a corner, and that’s exactly what markets want.

September’s False Dawn: Weak Jobs + Tariff Turmoil Signal Real Risk

September 5, 2025

September’s False Dawn: Weak Jobs + Tariff Turmoil Signal Real Risk

The jobs numbers are soft, tariff rulings roil confidence, and markets are flirting with seasonal weakness — this isn’t noise, it’s your cue to reallocate.

Powell’s Cut: Stability Sacrificed for Optics

August 29, 2025

Powell’s Cut: Stability Sacrificed for Optics

A premature rate cut may ignite markets in the short term—but risks long-term inflation, credibility, and dollar stability.

Tariff-Burned Rally Meets Stagflation Reality

August 22, 2025

Tariff-Burned Rally Meets Stagflation Reality

Markets hit record highs on CPI relief, but PPI, tariffs, and structural inflation risks show the Fed isn’t out of the game.

Data Dislocation and De-Globalization: The New Alpha Regime

August 15, 2025

Data Dislocation and De-Globalization: The New Alpha Regime

When trust in data breaks, real assets and supply-chain resilience become the only durable center of gravity.

Geopolitics, Pipelines, and the Return of Policy Risk

Geopolitics, Pipelines, and the Return of Policy Risk

The data is broken. Tariffs are real. Energy Transfer LP is the kind of infrastructure Wall Street isn’t paying attention to—yet.

Drones, Distortions, and What Comes Next

Drones, Distortions, and What Comes Next

Markets are smooth on the surface, but tension is building beneath. If you’re watching the right signals, you can already see the cracks.